Breaking Down the Men’s Tournament Field

Below is a conference-by-conference look at automatic bids for the NCAA Men’s Soccer Tournament.

First, let’s take a quick look at the two NCAA Women’s Tournament matches played Thursday.

#1 Stanford was actually scoreless with Northern Arizona at halftime, but TopDrawerSoccer.com co-player of the season Christen Press broke the ice early in the 2nd half, added a 2nd a bit later, both on assists from the other member of that award-winning tandem, Kelley O’Hara, and Paul Ratcliffe’s Cardinal squad won 2-0. Northern Arizona goalkeeper Tori Rocke was phenomenal in a losing effort.

In the opening game at Palo Alto, BYU beat UC Santa Barbara 2-0 on an own goal and an additional strike from Alyssa Vander Veur. The Cougars will face Stanford Saturday.

On the Men’s Side…

Let’s look at the men’s postseason situation. There are 21 automatic bids to the 48-team field, but it may as well be 22. While the Mid American Conference does not receive an automatic berth due to not keeping the required number of members for the sport, #1 Akron is definitely in the field at 18-0-0. Even if another team were to win the MAC tournament, the Zips would still be in. So that leaves 26 at-large bids (which could of course include another MAC team). Following is a rundown by conference.

America East (1): UMBC plays at Stony Brook Sunday in the final. Regular season champion New Hampshire is out.

Atlantic 10 (2):  Odd situation here as the team with the top seed, Dayton, is 73rd in the RPI while the team with the best overall record and a #23 RPI, Charlotte, is the 5th seed in the tournament and lost to Rhode Island in the opening round Thursday night. St. Bonaventure beat Fordham in 1st round play Thursday. St. Louis(m) meets Rhode Island and Dayton will play the Bonnies Friday.

ACC (7): Quarterfinals were played in a monsoon and with Clemson losing, we know that the conference will advance 7 to the NCAA Tournament, NC State, Boston College, Wake Forest and Virginia are in the semifinals but will be joined in the NCAA by Duke,  North Carolina and Maryland.

Atlantic Sun (1): Rain has also plagued this event, and the semifinals were pushed back to Friday where Mercer plays Campbell and East Tennessee State plays Stetson.

Big East (5):  St. John's plays Providence and Louisville meets Notre Dame Friday in the semifinals. Of those three only Providence is iffy, as is a possible 5th Big East team, Connecticut. I’ll give them all the benefit of the doubt here.

Big South (1): Tropic Storm Ida got these folks too. Top seed Coastal Carolina will be one of eight teams opening play Friday night, with the event moved from original hosts High Point in North Carolina to Gardner-Webb in, umm, North Carolina. Three games in three days for two lucky teams.

Big Ten (5): Three matches played Thursday set up semifinal matches of Indiana vs. Ohio State and Penn State vs. Michigan State. Northwestern is in despite losing Thursday, but Michigan may be in trouble. #33 in the latest RPI they lost a tough one in overtime to Penn State on a tremendous goal from Patrick Krispin. Whether the Wolverines get in will depend directly on the outcome of some of the smaller conferences. They play a nice game of soccer so here’s hoping they do.

Big West (2): UC Irvine and UC Santa Barbara are in Saturday’s final of the tournament after winning Wednesday night.  Both are in the NCAA but too low of an RPI will probably keep Cal Poly and Cal State Northridge out.

CAA (2): UNC Wilmington meets Old Dominion and Northeastern plays William & Mary(m) in the semifinals Friday. William & Mary(m) and UNC Wilmington could get in without winning, but the other two can’t.

Conference USA (1): UAB plays Marshall and Kentucky meets Tulsa in Friday’s semifinals. Only Tulsa has a high enough RPI to be assured of entering the NCAA without winning the conference tournament.

Horizon (1): Butler plays Cleveland State and Wisconsin-Green Bay meets Valparaiso Friday. Butler is probably in regardless, but none of the other three can say this.

Ivy (2): Harvard win the regular season if they defeat Penn at home Saturday. Brown could leapfrog the Crimson with a win over Dartmouth and some help. Harvard will be in the NCAA either way, but Brown is a bubble team. I think they should be in. Princeton and Dartmouth also have a chance with good RPI.

Metro Atlantic (1): Loyola (MD) plays Fairfield and Iona College faces Niagara in Friday’s semifinals. Some good records but no RPIs good enough to bring more than one team from this conference.

MAC (1): Akron is the prohibitive favorite and will be in, but Northern Illinois or Hartwick could climb high enough in the RPI if they were to win.

Missouri Valley (3): Missouri State meets Evansville and Drake plays Creighton. Evansville needs to win and it could, but it’s been a good year for this conference overall.

Mountain Pacific (1): Sacramento State meets UNLV in one semifinal Friday while New Mexico plays host Denver (a shootout winner over Air Force). The Lobos are the only team likely to get in regardless of the tournament outcome.

Northeast(1): Monmouth is #20 in the latest RPI and will get in. The Hawks face Fairleigh-Dickinson in one semifinal on Friday while St. Francis (NY) plays Quinnipiac in the other.

Pac-10 (3): UCLA and Stanford will be in regardless, but Oregon State could be in trouble. The Beavers definitely need a win Friday at Washington to have a chance. San Diego State could also get in with a win over UCLA in the regular season finale.

Patriot (1): Lafayette vs. Bucknell and American vs. Lehigh are the semifinal matchups Friday. American has the highest RPI but it’s probably not enough to get them without winning the conference tournament.

Southern(1): Wofford plays UNC Greensboro and College of Charleston plays Elon in Friday’s semifinals.

Summit (1): Oakland plays UMKC while Western Illinois meets IUPUI in Friday’s semifinals played at the Oakland campus.

West Coast (3): San Diego is the regular season champion and there is no conference tournament here. St. Mary's (CA) should be in at 10-3-4 and Loyola Marymount's RPI should get them in. Portland can also get in with late wins.

The more astute mathematicians among you will recognize that this leaves 2 or 3 slots still open for the NCAA. A team like South Florida, with a low RPI but a great record, could still get in. This also accommodates any real shockers in conference tournament play. But this is a pretty good ballpark of what is about to happen.