The debate between ECNL and high school soccer isn’t a particularly new one. For about the past four years, high school and ECNL officials alike have debated the merits of having players do both. As of now, they still can. But even if the laws of the land don’t change, the lay of the land might shift underneath it.

Since the league grew into the primary place for top girls club soccer in America shortly after its foundation in 2009, high end high school girls soccer has lived a numbered life. College programs build their in-person scouting networks almost entirely around ECNL showcases and events. The league is fast producing every relevant U.S. Women’s National Team product. There’s less incentive to backload your schedule with both when high school’s benefits are entirely personal.

That hasn’t had an enormous effect until now. While the zeitgeist has been slow to shift away from girls high school soccer, which fosters friendships and creates a sense of school-centered belonging, it appears the shift has arrived.

The D.C. area is one of the richest in the country as far as girls soccer recruits are concerned. So when 19 of the 21 players on FC Virginia’s U17 team recently decided to spurn high school soccer altogether, it wasn’t an isolated, passing fad. This meant something. High schools around the country are dealing with similar issues. Where once they could rely on a huge percentage of their club players to pull double duty, those decisions are becoming less reliable.

The high school “experience” has long been trumpeted as the clarion call for top players to stay with their school programs on top of ECNL duties. And for the most part that’s resonated. Last year, several prominent voices inside ECNL told TopDrawerSoccer.com that they wouldn’t support a mandated split down the middle. The blueprint in this case is U.S. Soccer’s Development Academy, which burned the bridge between high school and the academy in 2012. Playing both hasn’t been an option since, and boys high school soccer has dealt with some serious internal issues as a result.

“I don’t think I would support (a split),” Lonestar SC U18 midfielder Katherine Uhler, a 2014 Notre Dame commit, told TopDrawerSoccer.com last year. “High school is almost a break from club. I think sometimes the high school coaches understand how serious club is, and high school can be a little bit less serious. I’ve heard the guys talk about it, and they don’t seem too happy about it. I really hope they don’t do that with ECNL.”

For its part, the ECNL has taken a Laissez-faire approach from the top. Commissioner Sarah Kate Noftsinger has been historically reluctant to mandate players give up their high school commitments to play in ECNL, and that decision has precedent. High school soccer has had a larger role to play among girls for some time now, and forcibly pulling it from the discussion would involve repercussions. Part of that has always had to do with the differences in recruiting realities in girls soccer. There are nearly 130 more Division I women’s soccer programs than men’s, meaning the chances of earning some type of scholarship were always greater.

What happens next is anyone’s guess, but for now the ECNL appears content to let each market sort itself out. The free market approach has always favored ECNL, but it seems now large swaths of players are choosing to step back from high school altogether instead of simply cutting back on their playing time. In D.C.’s case, at least, that means a number high end players choosing club over high school in lieu of doing both. If more markets continue to follow suit, the ECNL’s monopoly will continue to grow.